'08 Preview - Top Five Offensive Players to Watch For: #4 ARMANDO ALLEN

(Continuing a look at who the top offensive play-makers will be for the Fighting Irish this season...)

#4 Impact Player on Offense:  Armando Allen, RB (Sophomore)

Vital Statistics:  5'10", 190 lbs

Players-unfairly-and-unrealistically-compared-to:  Julius Jones, Reggie Bush

Reggie Bush?!?  Seriously?  Well, perhaps it is more accurate to say the style of running back Reggie Bush was at USC, and Julius Jones was, especially earlier on in his career at Notre Dame:  the all-purpose, change-of-pace speed back, that gamebreaker capable of taking it to the house on any given possession, and often the third-down specialist who is in the game for his pass catching ability.  This type of back is crucial in Charlie Weis' offensive system because the two plays Weis loves to call the most are designed for this player - the screen pass and the draw.

You need a yard, you give it to your power back (and then give him a push in the back, right Reggie?)  Third and long, throw a screen to your speed back and let him work his magic.

Like this:

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So, how does Armando Allen compare?  A very pertinent, relevant question.  Bush is the standard-bearer for the type of back Allen is and Jones, while he wasn't much of a pass-catcher, certainly represents the all-purpose yardage benchmark Allen would aspire to.

Fortunately for our purposes, they all played considerable minutes as freshmen.

RUSHING CARRIES YARDS AVG.  TDs

Jones (1999) 75    375   5.0     3

Bush (2003) 90    564      5.8     3

Allen (2007) 86    348      4.o     0

RECEIVING RECEPTIONS YARDS AVG. TDs

Jones (1999)   3      90  30.0    0

Bush (2003) 15     314    20.9  4

Allen (2007) 24     124       5.2  1

KICKOFFS RETURNS YARDS AVG. TDs

Jones (1999) 26     603   23.2 0

Bush (2003) 18     492       27.3    1

Allen (2007) 33      704     21.3    0

PUNTS RETURNS YARDS AVG. TDs

Jones (1999)         15    195     13.0    1

Bush (2003) ~ did not return punts as a freshman ~

Allen (2003) ~ did not return punts as a freshman ~

So what do these stats reveal?  That Armando Allen is no Reggie Bush?  It's important to point out that not all things are equal:  Bush's 2003 USC team won the national championship; Allen's 2007 Notre Dame team... uh, didn't.  Keeping in mind that it's not always constructive to compare players as such, two revealing stats pop out to me: 

1) the lack of scoring from Allen, and 

2) the significantly lower average Allen has, especially in receiving. 

So why is Allen on this list?   

1) He was heavily involved in the offense last year as a freshman; his 110 combined touches (catches & carries) was second on the team to James Aldridge's 126 touches.  

2) As one of three running backs that figures to see prominent action, Allen should continue to play a bigger role in the offense (Aldridge and Hughes are somewhat similar running backs in their size and style; Allen, being the only change-of-pace speed back, brings a different dimension).

3)  History.  Another player to compare Allen to is Darius Walker, especially as a receiver out of the backfield in a Charlie Weis offense:

RECEIVING RECEPTIONS YARDS AVG. TDs

Walker (2005) 43 351 8.2  2

Walker (2006)  56 391 7.0  1

4)  Potential.  The Bush comparisons are not by accident.  Allen was a blazing track star coming out of high school in Florida and his football highlight reels had recruiting gurus and the blogosphere gushing.

Devil's Advocate

Allen had plenty of touches last year, plenty of opportunity to display that world-class speed, right?  Then how come his longest run was 15 yards?  Your two power backs, Aldridge and Hughes had 40+ yard runs (in fact, Hughes had several).  Even worse, Allen's longest reception was a mere 16 yards.  No matter how bad the offensive line was last year - and let's face it, they opened up holes frequently enough, only it was for the opposing defense to come rushing through - you figure that Allen would have busted at least one run, at least one screen pass...

2008 Projection

Armando Allen will be a big part of this offense next year.  Just based on the sheer number of times a screen pass or a draw is called has him at #4 on this list.  Much like Mike Ragone and our TEs, Allen's continued maturity and development should at the very minimum help improve the efficiency of our offense, making those first downs, moving the chains, sustaining drives, and ultimately putting points up on the board.

I think Armando Allen is crucial for the team in another way.  When you look at the roster of offensive skill players, the phrase "nickel-and-dime" comes to mind:  there just doesn't seem to be that big time, game-breaking home run threat in the lineup... with the exception of Armando Allen.  If Notre Dame is to reach a truly elite status - whether its this year or next or whenever - it needs the elite athletes to put up some elite numbers.

To put it another way, Armando Allen reaching some of that potential could be the difference between winning a BCS Bowl game or barely sneaking into the Gator Bowl.

At this point, I'll take the Gator Bowl (and a win, please!).  And hopefully some runs of longer than 15 yards...

A Second Opinion:  Blue and Gold Illustrated/Post Spring Projection for Armando Allen.

(For those of you who don't remember what a Notre Dame gamebreaker looks like, maybe this will refresh your memory:)

'08 Preview - Top Five Offensive Players to Watch For: #5 MIKE RAGONE

(Continuing a look at who the top offensive play-makers will be for the Fighting Irish this season...)

#5 Impact Player on Offense:  Mike Ragone, TE (Sophomore)

Vital Statistics:  6'5, 241 lbs

Players unfairly-and-unrealistically compared to:  Anthony Fasano, John Carlson

Actually, perhaps it's not unfair.  Why would Ragone, a third string tight end last year with one catch and no video footage (shoot, the only picture Google images brings up are high school pictures) be on this list?  Quite simply, because he figures to be the tight end with the lion's share of receptions in this offense.  

Weis' offensive system doesn't have a fancy name (spread, West Coast) and it doesn't have a readily identifiable look.  That's by design.  But one thing you can count on in a Weis offensive system is TE production.  Check out the statistical comparison between Weis' first two years and the two years prior to his arrival (statistics reflect the combined production of the top two TEs; usually one TE hoards the catches...):

2003/2004:  32 catches - 373 yards - 3 TDs (average over the two seasons)

2005/2006:  52 catches - 591 yards - 4 TDs (average over the two seasons)

Even last year, the worst offense in college football featured a TE as the leading receiver.  John Carlson was still able to put up numbers eerily close to what we saw before Weis arrived:

Carlson 2007:  40 catches - 372 yards - 3 TDs

So why Ragone?  A number of factors point to a big season:

1)  See the above TE production in a Weis offense.

2) His competition:  a junior who might be the designated blocking TE (Yeatman), another junior who just moved positions from FB (Schmidt), and two freshman (Rudolph and Fauria).

3) Due to Yeatman's suspension, Ragone got almost all the reps in spring.

And oh yeah, 4) apparently Ragone is pretty fast.  "He's really, really fast," Weis said of his highly-rated TE recruit a year and a half ago on signing day.  "You don't find many tight ends that run that fast."  In high school, Ragone had six TDs that were 60+ yards and also returned a kickoff for a touchdown.  He was a friggin' TE returning kickoffs...  think about that.

Devil's Advocate:  Ragone might only be the co-starter at TE, along with Will Yeatman.  It's hard to get too excited over one 7-yard reception (his career so far) and 22 career playing minutes.  Plus, the two previous TEs (Fasano and Carlson) were really, really good - both first day NFL Draft picks.

2008 Projection:  One phrase that might sum up Notre Dame's offense last year would be "three and out." (Okay: "Clausen/Sharpley sacked for a loss..." also works).  They really struggled picking up first downs, sustaining drives, moving the chains, keeping their defense and the other team's offense off the field.  A TE figures to play a big role in changing that and Ragone figures to be that TE.  Will he be returning kickoffs?  Probably not.  And he might not have too many 60+ TDs (although that would be sweet if he did!).  But he should be a legitimate weapon in a much improved offense and I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers this year matched Carlson's last year.

A Second Opinion:  Blue and Gold Illustrated/Post-Spring Projection for Mike Ragone.

'08 Season Preview ~ Top 5 Offensive Players to Watch For: HONORABLE MENTION ~ MICHAEL FLOYD

It is a mere 15 days until Media Day and the start of fall camp in preparation for the upcoming football season (not that anyone's counting).  It is also marks the beginning of Year 4 of the Charlie Weis Era.  For many an esteemed Notre Dame football coach, Year 3 has been magical; coaches that won national championships in their third year reads like a who's who list of all the Irish greats: Rockne. Leahy.  Parseghian.  Devine.  Holtz.

Weis?  Well... yeah.  

But was last year an aberration?  His first two years were among the most prolific in recent memory.  It wasn't just about the 19-6 record (which was shades better than his two predecessors), two lucrative appearances in BCS bowls (yes, I realize that they were blown out in both), or highly acclaimed recruiting classes - all tremendous achievements.  No, to me it was about the product on the field.  Weis arrived with a reputation for producing offensive juggernauts and he did not disappoint.  For the first time in over ten years - since the height of the Lou Holtz powerhouse teams - Notre Dame was scoring in droves and piling on the yardage and flat-out embarrassing teams...   

To put it another way, for over ten years Saturday afternoons were spent hoping that a few lucky breaks would go our way and allow us to sneak past (insert mediocre rival here: Purdue, Michigan State, Stanford, etc).  Then Weis came along and all of a sudden you were wondering how many touchdowns you would be up by before half-time.

If Year 4 hopes to resemble Years 1 & 2 in terms of offensive production, common sense (at least in the Notre Dame blogosphere) dictates that all improvement starts and ends with the offensive line.  I would suggest that in addition a few stars need to emerge.  And so, as a means of previewing the upcoming season, I'm going to count down my list of the Top Five Players (plus one) who I predict are most-likely to be the offensive stars this year for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Let's begin with the plus one:

Honorable Mention ~ Michael Floyd, WR (Freshman)             

Vital Statistics:  6'3, 200 ilbs.

Player unfairly-and-unrealistically compared to: Terrell Owens 

Yes, that Terrell Owens.  The hype surrounding Floyd's arrival is staggering... and that was even before he reported with the other freshman in June for summer workouts, prompting one blogger to gush that he looked like "T.O. 2."  I reserve judgement until he personally scores four TDs against USC but based on potential, he deserves an honorable mention.  Notre Dame does not seem to have that game-changing home-run hitter in their lineup. The impact could be Randy-Moss-on-the-Patriots-esque.  If...

Oh, it is also worth noting that at the last U.S. Army Bowl high school all-star game, Floyd stood out with two touchdowns and 118 yards receiving on four receptions .

Here's one of them.  Pass delivered from now current teammate, QB Dayne Crist.  Highly-rated DB beat is now attending Michigan.  

How sweet it is.

Devil's Advocate:  He's only a freshman.  Even if he's anywhere near as good as the hype would indicate, it'll still be another year or two before he takes that quantum leap into superstardom.

2008 Projection:  I think Floyd plays early and often, the primary reason being that I just don't think we have high quality WRs.  It'll be interesting to see how quickly he climbs that depth chart in the fall.  How good will he be?  Maybe not "TO2" or even Samardzija/Stovall but he should at least put up numbers as good as Duval Kamara's freshman campaign last year (32 receptions, 357 yards, 4 TDs) and hopefully closer to what one-time ND prospect Arrelious Benn put up as a freshman last year at Illinios (54 receptions, 676 yards, 2 TDs).

A Second Opinion:  Blue and Gold Illustrated/Post-Spring Projection for Michael Floyd.

Walls out; Hord transfers

News "officially" broke yesterday regarding Notre Dame starting CB Darrin Walls, who is expected to miss the upcoming football season.  In fact, according to a University press release, Walls will not be enrolled for the fall semester and will return home to Pittsburgh, PA for "personal reasons."

When I first saw the news, I had a slight case of Julius Jones redux, circa 2002.  You remember, Tyrone Willingham's first season, the 8-0 start, accomplished without the star running back/future 2nd round draft choice of the Dallas Cowboys, who was in Arizona for the year trying to make up the grades to get back into Notre Dame.

Is Walls that good?  It's debatable - especially considering that he would have been just starting his junior year.  Many do consider him to be Notre Dame's first lock-down cornerback and potential first day draft pick at that position since Bobby Taylor back in the mid-1990s.

According to various recruiting publications, he was the highest rated CB coming out of high school to sign with Notre Dame in recent memory.  He did line up opposite Calvin Johnson (2nd overall pick in the NFL Draft that year) in his very first game.  And of course, he was a 12 game starter last year as a sophmore, leading the team with 9 pass breakups, something neither of his projected replacements can claim.

Optimists point out that both likely candidates for the newly-vacated CB position (Raeshon McNeil or Gary Gray) are highly-touted themselves and probably more than capable of filling in.  Optimists would also point out that the slate of QBs/WRs/passing attacks Notre Dame faces this year might be down a notch from previous years.  

In other words, it might not hurt the team when it comes to the bottom line in terms of wins and losses.

I do think Notre Dame will miss his big-play ability, as seen in the following clips.  In a season of few highlights, it's very telling when a defensive back has two of the biggest:

Walls INT for TD against Penn State

Now watch #2 turn the corner here against Stanford.  There's no other way to say this:  the boy can fly (it's only fitting that the best TD of the year came from the defense... and of course ironically didn't count):

Zbikowski/Walls INT for TD against Stanford

In addition to #2 (Walls), you can scratch #1 off your 2008 roster as well:  yesterday Notre Dame also announced senior WR D.J. Hord would be transferring.  Hord was arguably the highest rated player in Charlie Weis' first recruiting class.  Sadly, there are no video clips to show of Hord and that probably tells you why he is transferring:  he never really developed into the player that we all hoped he would be.  Part of that was due to the torn ACL he suffered as a sophmore but even before then, he was the 2nd best WR in his two-WR class (behind David Grimes).  

We can only wish Hord and Walls the best of luck on their roads ahead (and hope Walls' road leads him back to the Irish).